Fertility and the changing pattern of the timing of childbearing in Colombia

BACKGROUND According to the latest 2010 CDHS, Colombia’s total fertility rate (TFR) reached the level of 2.1. Studies show that the long-observed early childbearing pattern there might be changing, in particular for highly educated women, yet detailed analysis of timing of motherhood by birth order is lacking. In low fertility contexts, changes in the timing of childbearing are vital for interpreting period fertility measures and anticipating future trajectories. OBJECTIVE To study the fertility trend in Colombia since 1990 and examine how the timing of childbearing changed by birth order and across cohorts. The relationship between education and timing of motherhood is analysed in depth across cohorts. METHODS To analyse the trend in fertility and timing of childbearing, order-specific mean age at birth and tempo-adjusted TFR are calculated using CDHS. Discrete-time logit models are fitted to study the transition to first and second births across cohorts and educational groups. RESULTS Opposing trends in the timing of first and second births are found, with early transition to motherhood existing alongside postponement of second births. This process and the documented halt to the decrease in the age at first birth contribute to the end of the inflating effect of childbearing timing changes on TFR. Multivariate analysis reveals that norms relating to later transition to motherhood are emerging not only among women with university education but also among women with lower educational levels. Postponement of second births is observed in all educational strata. CONCLUSION With continuation of the documented trends, a depressing effect of the changes in the timing of childbearing on TFR could be expected in Colombia, possibly bringing it to be low replacement level

Fertility and contraceptive use in Latin America

The rapid fertility declines and increases in contraceptive prevalence rates in the last decades in Latin America occurred concurrently with increases in teenage and unintended childbearing. The factors behind, as well as possible future demographic consequences of this unique pattern of fertility change are still poorly understood. This thesis advances knowledge of three aspects of reproductive behaviour in Latin America: dynamics of contraceptive use in relation to an unintended birth experience, educational disparities in motherhood-timing and possible future of cohort fertility. I explore an untapped potential of the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Population Censuses for Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Brazil, and employ demographic and statistical modelling techniques that have not been previously fully exploited in the Latin American context. First, I show how the longitudinal DHS reproductive “calendars” can be analysed using event-history models to advance the understanding of contraceptive choices of women who experience unintended pregnancies in Colombia and Peru. The study uncovers the importance of considering patterns of both pre- and after-birth contraceptive behaviour to inform the organization of postpartum family planning programmes in both countries. Second, using census data, I provide the first estimates of cohort first-birth age-specific schedules disaggregated by education level for Ecuador, Colombia and Peru. I document vastly increasing educational disparities in motherhood-timing during the fertility transition and discuss the potential factors behind this process. The analyses uncover a drastic increase in teenage fertility among women who drop-out of secondary school, indicating a need for an intervention. Lastly, using indirectly reconstructed fertility rates from censuses, cohort fertility is forecasted for total population and by education in Brazil. The study shows how a Bayesian model for fertility forecasting can be applied in the Latin American context where the childbearing pattern has been distinct from other world regions and where there is a scarcity of time-series of fertility rates. The study reveals the evolution of educational differences in completed fertility and shows that emerging low period fertility levels in Brazil might not necessarily correspond to women’s equally low lifetime fertility in the future. Overall, the substantive findings improve the understanding of the reproductive behaviour disparities in Latin America and serve as inputs for the design of policies to alleviate them. The novel use of data and application of methods are important for the development of future research agendas on fertility change and for the collection of fertility data in the region

The Selective Impact of Changes in Age-at-Marriage Laws on Early Marriage: Policy Challenges and Implications for Women’s Higher-Education Attendance

This study explores the extent to which changes in age-at-marriage laws are effective in curbing early marriage and, if so, whether delays in age at marriage brought about by legal changes increase women’s likelihood to participate in higher education. To answer these questions, we combine individual-level data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) with longitudinal information on policy changes from the PROSPERED project for six low- and middle-income countries from three broad regions: Benin and Mauritania (Sub-Sharan Africa), Tajikistan and Kazakhstan (Central Asia), and Nepal and Bhutan (South Asia). We adopted regression discontinuity design to obtain estimates of the causal effect of changes in age-at-marriage laws on early marriage and educational outcomes. Our results suggest that these laws work only selectively – specifically, significant reductions in early marriage following the law implementation are observed only in two out of the six countries – yet when they work, their impact on early marriage has important implications for women’s higher-education attendance. In Tajikistan and Nepal, an increase in the legal age at marriage by one or two years, respectively, leads to a 20-60 percentage-point higher likelihood of attending some form of higher education. In light of the significant human capital gains documented in countries where laws proved to have an impact, we conclude by arguing that, in order for changes in laws to be effective, better laws must be accompanied by better enforcement and monitoring to delay marriage and protect the rights of women and girls. Adequate policy implementation and enforcement are necessary preconditions for actual change and should be the subject of greater international attention and investments

Increases in child marriage among the poorest in Mali: 'reverse policies' or data quality issues?

Child marriage is associated with adverse outcomes related to women's well-being. Many countries have introduced laws banning this practice, and a number of studies have evaluated their impact. Scant research has focused on instances where countries have lowered the legal minimum age at marriage, even though such 'reverse policies' could result in stalled or uneven progress in eradicating child marriage. Using visualization techniques, regression analyses, and multiple robustness checks, we document changes in the prevalence of child marriage in Mali, where in 2011 the general minimum age at marriage of 18 was lowered to 16. Since 2011, the prevalence of child marriage has progressively increased among women with no education and women living in communities characterized by low local development. We reflect on the role that data collection processes may play in explaining some of these findings and stress how repealing existing provisions aiming to protect girls can have adverse consequences on the most vulnerable social strata

Forecasting of cohort fertility by educational level in countries with limited data availability: the case of Brazil

The Brazilian period total fertility rate (PTFR) dropped to 1.8 in 2010 (1.5 among those with high education). Due to shifts in fertility timing, the PTFR may provide a misleading picture of fertility levels. The consequences of these changes for the cohort total fertility rate (CTFR)—a measure free from tempo distortions—and for educational differences in completed fertility remain unknown. Due to data limitations, CTFR forecasts in low- and middle-income countries are rare. We use Brazilian censuses to reconstruct fertility rates indirectly and forecast the CTFR for all women and by educational level. Four forecasting methods indicate that the CTFR is unlikely to fall to the level of the PTFR. Educational differences in the CTFR are likely to be stark, at 0.7–0.9, larger than in many high-income countries with comparable CTFRs. We show how the CTFR can be forecasted in settings with limited data and call for more research on educational differences in completed fertility in low- and middle-income countrie

Increasing educational disparities in the timing of motherhood in the Andean region: a cohort perspective

In spite of a peculiar pattern of the age at first birth in Latin America, there is little research about the long-term trends in the timing of transition to motherhood at all stages of women’s reproductive lives and across countries in the region. This paper examines the evolution of educational disparities in the age at first birth during the fertility transition in three Andean region countries: Ecuador, Colombia, and Peru. Using birth history information available in the latest Population and Housing Censuses, I estimate the first-birth age-specific rates disaggregated by various measures of education level, for cohorts born between 1945 and 1980. In all countries, educational expansion was accompanied by increasing rates of first birth before the age of 20 among women with below completed higher education, but the most drastic change occurred among women who dropped out of secondary school. Concurrently, the first-birth rates at the age of 20–29 decreased for women who achieved higher education; an evidence of an increase in the rates above the age of 30 among them started to emerge. A pronounced divergence in the first-birth timing between the educational groups occurred during the fertility transition. Comparison of a relative and an absolute educational level classification shows that the increasing disparities between the lowest and the highest educated women were similarly pronounced even when accounting for the changes in educational composition across cohorts. This paper discusses the potential factors behind the polarization in the age at first birth in the region. It argues that there is a need for policies encouraging not only secondary school entrance but also secondary school completion in the context of substantial educational expansion and high levels of school dropout observed in the region

Forecasting of cohort fertility by educational level in countries with limited data availability : the case of Brazil

The Brazilian period fertility rate (PTFR) dropped from six to 1.8 between 1950 and 2010. Due to the shifts in the timing of fertility, the PTFR might be providing a misleading picture of fertility levels. Moreover, the national average hides important educational differences, as in 2010, the PTFR was 2.3 among the lower educated, whereas it had fallen to 1.5 among the higher educated. The consequences of these changes for the cohort total fertility rate (CTFR) – a measure that is free from tempo distortions – and for the educational differences in completed fertility have not been previously studied. Due to the scarcity of time series of fertility rates, the application of CTFR forecasting methods outside of high-income countries (HICs) has been rare, and has been largely limited to population-level analysis. We use four Brazilian censuses to forecast the CTFR for the total population and by educational level using rates reconstructed with indirect techniques. The results of four forecasting methods indicate that the CTFR is likely to decline to 2.1 for the 1980 cohort, and to 1.9 for the 1984 cohort. Educational differences in the CTFR are likely to remain stark – at between 0.7 and 0.9 depending on the cohort and the method – and to be larger than they are in HICs with comparable CTFRs. We show how the CTFR can be forecasted, including by educational level, in settings with limited data. Finally, we call for more research on the educational differences in completed fertility in low- and middle-income countries

Changing Gender Gaps in the Timing of Partnership Formation in Sub-Saharan Africa

Due to scarcity of research about men, gender differences in transition to adulthood in Sub-Saharan Africa remain poorly documented. We adopt a novel perspective on this topic by examining gender gaps in the ages of first union and sex in 27 countries, focusing on measures of central tendency and dispersion. Gender differences in the age of first union decreased, driven by postponement among women with relatively late pattern of union formation. Due to concurrent persistence of very early unions among a sizable portion of women’s populations, within-country heterogeneity in the ages of first union increased substantially among women. Hence, although forces responsible for earlier union formation among women than among men are weakening, these changes affect population strata unequally. Gender differences in the age of first sex decreased to a lesser extent, but in some countries, they disappeared or reversed, suggesting a shift in the relationship between gender and timing of sexual initiation. Changes in partnership formation are more heterogeneous across countries among men than among women, indicating that timing of transition to adulthood among men is more context specific. We show importance of including men in research on partnership formation and exploring heterogeneity in this process both within and between populations of women and men

The socioeconomic dynamics of trends in female genital mutilation/cutting across Africa

Background The majority of women who undergo female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) live in Africa. Although the UN Sustainable Development Goals call for intensified efforts to accelerate the abandonment of FGM/C, little is known about where in Africa the declines in prevalence have been fastest and whether changes in prevalence differ by women's socioeconomic status. Methods We use data from Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys for 23 African countries, collected between 2002 and 2016, and covering 293 170 women. We reconstruct long-term cohort trends in FGM/C prevalence spanning 35 years, for women born between 1965 and 1999. We compute absolute and relative changes in FGM/C prevalence and differentials in prevalence by women's education and urban-rural residence. We examine whether socioeconomic differences in FGM/C are converging or diverging. Findings FGM/C prevalence has declined fastest (in relative terms) in countries with lower initial prevalence, and more slowly in countries with higher initial prevalence. Although better-educated women and those living in urban areas tend to have lower prevalence, in some countries the opposite pattern is observed. Socioeconomic differentials in FGM/C have grown in the majority of countries, particularly in countries with moderate-to-higher overall prevalence. Conclusions The documented relationship between absolute and relative FGM/C prevalence rates suggests that in settings with higher initial prevalence, FGM/C practice is likely to be more entrenched and to change more slowly. There is substantial variation between countries in socioeconomic differentials in prevalence and their changes over time. As countries change from higher to lower overall prevalence, socioeconomic inequalities in FGM/C are increasing

A gender story of institutional disengagement of young adults in Latin America

Funding: H2020 European Research Council - 834103 (MigrantLife).Latin America is home to many young adults who are neither engaged in formal education nor work, controversially dubbed as “nini” (“ni” trabajan “ni” estudian, denoting neither working nor studying). At the same time, early union formation and parenthood are pervasive in the region. Theories pertaining to the linkage between parenthood and female labor force participation are heavily based on evidence found in the Global North, with limited research on the topic in settings with less stable family structures, such as Latin American countries. This study tests the role household structure and family formation play on institutional disengagement of young adults in 12 Latin American countries. We explore the gender dynamic of human capital stagnation by focusing on early parenthood and conjugal partnership for women and men aged 20–25. We use censuses from the Integrated Public-Use Microdata Series and country-specific linear regression models. Our results reveal that the intersection of class and gender is a major determinant of institutional disengagement in the region. Women from lower social origins who leave parental home to enter conjugal union and parenthood at younger ages are particularly at risk. This study highlights the urgency of contextualizing the interplay between work and family within the framework of regional family norms, prompting further dialogues concerning the social implications of perceived inactivity.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe